The government of Osun State under Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola has reiterated its commitment to the development of the agricultural sector in a bid to make it profitable to farmers and provide food for the state.

Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Security, Wale Adedoyin, stated this in Osogbo during a meeting with members of farm settlers across the state.

He said the present administration will continue to support farmers by providing necessary farm inputs and agricultural facilities such as ferterlizers,seedlings,chemicals and so on at subsidised rates.

He added that the government has also reduced land use fees to one thousand naira(# 1,000)which will due after 24years for arable crops while cash crops is 49years which are renewable after the specified years of use.

The Agric commissioner however implored the farm settlers to henceforth ignore any issue that come to them without the authority of his ministry.

In his address, the Director Agric Services, Mr Kola Ajisekola enjoined all Farm Settlers to keep on abiding by the state government agricultural policy so as to continue  to enjoy the dividends  of democracy which the administration of Aregbesola will continue to give.

THE celebration of this year’s edition of the annual Osun Osogbo festival would be low key as the state government has said it will not allow tourists from outside the State to participate in the event.
The reason for the low key celebration is based on prevention of the spread  of Ebola virus disease in the state.
Speaking at a press conference, the state Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Mr. Sunday Akere,  said the measure was necessary and in the interest of the people of the state.
The commissioner called for the understanding of the people, particularly Osun worshipers and devotees as well as the traditionalists, saying their cooperation is a sacrifice they must pay for the well being of the residents of the State.
However, he said in spite of the low key nature of this year’s Osun Festival, all traditional rites and sacrifices by the Osun devotees in Osogbo would be observed.
He explained that the state government has restricted movements of non-residents of Osun, saying this would help to prevent the spread of the disease to the State.
Akere informed that only traditional worshippers and well wishers who are resident in the State will be allowed to partake in the celebration of the Osun Festival to minimise bodily contacts among the people.
He said: “We are determined to take all necessary steps to avert Ebola epidemics in our State. Consequently, scaling down this year’s celebration of the Osun Festival is a sacrifice we must make in order to prevent a crisis that will put human lives in jeopardy.”

There was hardly a tenser election. Nerves frayed, tempers rose, expectations dissipated, predictions conflicted. Nothing was cock sure. From one corner, it was presented as a fight between good and evil; from another, it was the battle of realism against rhetoric, of the now against the later.
The victor, incumbent governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, knows victory was hard coming and almost lost, thus appreciating the people more. “I am humbled and honoured by your trust and abiding faith in me and my party,” he said, pledging that the people’s confidence in him and his party “shall never be betrayed or taken for granted.”
The defeated, Senator Iyiola Omisore, far from being bloodied, stands tall yet. Inferring from the considerable number of votes he gathered, a staggering over 290,000 against a popular and performing incumbent, he opines: “August 9 has given the demography of the change-seeking people.”
To a large extent Omisore is right that the demography of his support is far more widespread than the overall result would suggest. Despite the view that “most of Omisore’s votes came from Ife alone”, only 23%(67,722) actually came from his four Ife Local Government (LG) areas, comparing not too badly from Ogbeni’s about 20% from his Ilesha axis. Omisore garnered considerable, even shockingly close votes from a number of other areas considered APC (or Ogbeni) strongholds like Ifedayo (3,982 to APC’s 4,225), Oriade (10,214 to APC’s 12,523), Orolu (6,786 to APC’s 8,558), Atakumosa West (5,142 to APC’s 6,928), Ila (7,916 to APC’s 10,825), Ayedaade (11,255 to APC’s 12,801), Obokun (8,618 to APC’s 11,696), Egbedore (7,084 to APC’s 10,615), Iwo (15,493 to APC’s 20,827), Ejigbo (12,495 to APC’s 17,700); and even victorious elsewhere like Ayedire (7,813 over APC’s 7,724), Isokan (10,028 over APC’s 9,578, Olagunsoye Oyinlola’s Odo-Otin (12,902 over APC’s 11,950), and (awful) my own LG, Boluwaduro (5,035 above APC’s 4891 – the only consolation being Ogbeni winning resoundingly in my town, Igbajo!
So what happened? I did my own investigative research prior to the election, talking to ordinary folks – an okada rider here, an artisan there – in towns and rural areas. And what I encountered in some places truly shocked me about the illogicality, nay unreasonableness, of many of our people. I encountered utter folly, sheer spite in places, and understandable grouse in some others.
I identified three or four sets of anti-Ogbeni voters. One, those who just wanted change for change’s sake; two, those whose abodes or means of livelihood were badly affected by the huge urban renewal projects; three, and the most virulent of all, those who have bought into the negative and largely false or exaggerated stories against Ogbeni and would believe nothing else.
Of the first group, I met one local surveyor in Iwo town who told me: “We just want change. I think the people agree that Aregbesola has performed well, but four years is enough, let another person come in too and do his own, that way things can go round. Some new hands can get appointed and the benefits can spread.” And raising the spectre of possible abandoned project did not persuade him.
Of the second group, the argument that one needs to look at the greater good for the greater number of people meant nothing to their ears.
Then the third. Clearly, bad negative news is far sweeter to our people’s ears than positive ones. The stories being peddled against Aregbesola ranged from the believable to the very outrageous and improbable. “Only ‘Lagos people’ are engaged in his government or take the fat contracts.” “All of Osun’s money is going to Tinubu.” “Aregbe wants to Islamise Osun.” And sundry others too horrible to bear mention here. As these fibs gained traction, they got more and more embellished from hearer to hearer and re-teller to re-teller! Of course, being fuelled and played up by the opposition parties no end. That is politics.
I think APC could count itself lucky PDP, in Omisore, threw up a candidate with so much heavy negative baggage and credibility deficit, who also could not (well, to be honest no one could) match Aregbe in oratorical and populist skills. But what Omisore lacked in those areas he more than compensated for in capacity to wrought damage, forcefully, stealthily, and financially, on anyone. And the number of votes he amassed was proof enough.
Equally, APC is lucky the Osun election came after the Ekiti nasty experience, with enough time to borrow from it and “do the needful”! But, above it all, there is the ‘Ogbeni magic’ of which I have said more than enough in previous columns. His energy, his passion, his sincerity, his self-discipline, his integrity, his intellect, his visionary drive, is prodigious. It would have been sad, truly sad, were the election to have gone any other way. Osun – we all – would have been the loser!
For now, time to roll our sleeves and join hands on the plough. There is so much Aregbe has begun that needs be steadfastly but cautiously pursued. Ogbeni is not flawless and he would have to calm down to listen and take to good counsel. His political future is so bright not only amongst his Yoruba people as their “Oranmiyan” but in the Nigeria firmament crying for real leaders – visionary, dedicated and trustworthy.
And that’s saying it the way it is!
President Jonathan and obtuse reality
Buoyed by the applaud for peaceful and relatively free and fair Osun election, President Goodluck Jonathan, for a change, sounded persuasive in defence of the charges of militarisation levelled against his government in the conduct of the Osun polls.
He argues that the heavy presence of security personnel in Osun preceding and during the election was necessary to forestall incidences of violence and malpractices that had been the hallmark of our electoral experience in the past.
Expressing surprise that anyone could decry such overbearing presence of armed security agents, he wonders at “how short human memories are.” He then reminded Nigerians, “what happened in Bauchi, (where) about 10 Youth Corpers were slaughtered in that election,” four years ago. “We know what happened in Kano; properties worth millions of naira were destroyed…” he said, further citing the Akwa Ibom experience, etc.
In his opinion, the governorship elections conducted so far, in Edo, Anambra, Ondo, Ekiti and now Osun states under his presidency, owe their credibility and success to such preventive “militarisation”, reminding us that the results did not favour his PDP party in most of them. He is of the belief that the Nigerian disposition for political thuggery and our stage of development do not give us the luxury of dispensing with heavy security forces as deterrence.
Well said, Mr. President, but, say, why did some of them wear hoods? Say, how come in all the instances cited the only people being hounded, brutalised and detained, were members of parties other than the PDP? How come the PDP had never claimed any of its members suffered in the hands of Jonathan’s security goons even whilst conventional notion is that the PDP is a “nest of killers” and purveyors of violence?
If Mr. President has answers for that we want to hear it, otherwise he bearsthe flak.

It is a triumph for democracy as the wishes of the people are increasingly being respected
On Saturday, August 9, 2014, the people of Osun State went to the poll and voted for continuity by re-electing the incumbent governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, with a convincing margin. But even more impressive was the near serene and peaceful nature of the poll, a clear contrast to the strikingly belligerent and tensed political atmosphere that prevailed in the state few days before the election.
 
Like the Ekiti State governorship election before it, there were no reported incidents of ballot-snatching, missing names in the electoral register or late voting due to late arrival of polling agents and sensitive materials at polling venues. There are, at least, some reasons to hope and we commend the security forces for their collaborative efforts, their impartiality and restraint, and in providing the enabling environment for the peaceful poll.
Indeed, the exercise brought some relief to all stakeholders as it was adjudged free, fair and credible while critical stakeholders were all agreed that the result largely reflected the will of the Osun State electorate. This bodes well for the future of Nigeria’s democracy as it represents the only pathway to political stability if sustained.
We congratulate both the winner, Ogbeni Aregbesola of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the loser, Senator Iyiola Omisore of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Similarly we commend the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for this remarkable feat and living up to the words of its chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, who had vowed that the election would be an improvement on its past records. Indeed, the Ekiti and the Osun governorship elections have shown that the electoral body can make up for its past inadequacies. Available reports indicate that INEC was able to put its act together raising hopes that the commission might gradually be living up to its responsibility as a credible umpire. This is confidence-boosting as we inch towards the 2015 general election.
Even so, we believe that it is very important that we take stock of what transpired in the course of the election so that we can draw some useful lessons for the future. While the process was generally adjudged as credible, we cannot but state that it came at some cost. For instance, one noticeable trend in the Osun State election was the heavy security presence before, during and after the votes were cast, a replay of what happened during the Ekiti State election. Even if we admit that the politically difficult atmosphere preceding the election made it mandatory to draft some other security forces to complement the police, the sheer number of the security personnel on ground just for one election was worrying. It was therefore little wonder that there were some reported cases of over-zealousness, intimidation and unlawful arrest.
As we have had to point out in similar circumstance in the past, the implication of such a heavy show of force is that if the Osun and Ekiti polls were to be the prism through which to view future polls, then the 2015 general election would be challenging indeed. Where would the authorities find such large numbers of men to police all the states at the same time?
But overall, the omens are good. There is something to cheer as Nigerians prepare for the general election in 2015. Increasingly, the wishes of the people are being respected. The Ekiti and Osun examples are handy templates. They may not have been perfect, but they are remarkable improvement on previous elections. If the Ekiti and Osun elections serve as mirror for 2015, then we can conclude that the future of democracy in Nigeria is very bright.
THISDAY

The deployment of troops in Osun State during the August 9  governorship election generated so much controversy. Before and during the poll, security agents were on the prowl. Many chieftains of the All Progressives Congress (APC) were arrested. But, there  was no harassment of voters on poll day. EMMANUEL OLADESU, who monitored the exercise, revisits the role of security agents during the  exercise.
Osun State governorship election will linger in the memory of stakeholders for some time.
Throughout the campaigns, there was never a time I thought that the poll will not be free and fair, despite the combative approach adopted by the two major political parties-the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But, two days before I embarked on my journey to Osogbo, the state capital, I started nursing some fears. On Tuesday, my mother-in-law said she was troubled by what she had been reading in the newspapers about preparations for the poll. I and assured her that all was well.
I woke up on Thursday and prayed as my in-law had advised me. Then, I set out.
As I was entering Ibadan, my elder sister called  on phone. Where are you? She asked. Without waiting for my reply, she said: “I know you are in Osogbo or about to leave Lagos for Osogbo. The campaigns there have been hot. Please, try to protect yourself. When Oyinlola and Aregbesola were fighting  some years’ back, some people died. But, now, the two of them are friends. So, be careful. Oju l’alakan fi nso’ri o.”
But, these feelings paled into a figment of hyperactive imagination when we got to Ikire, the border town. To the surprise of  three of us in the car- our photographer, Dayo Adewumi, a colleague from another media house, and I – there was no roadblock manned by soldiers or policemen. Hawkers of dodo Ikire, roasted chicken, oranges and other fruits were going about with their hawking. The first roadblock was at Gbongan, near Ode-Omu. Four soldiers were there  for the routine stop-and-search duty. They were polite. “When are you coming from?” one of them asked me. “From Lagos sir,” I replied. “Who are you?”he asked again. “We are reporters,” I replied. Reporters from where? I answered that we were from The Nation.“Oh, that is the newspaper writing about us. What is inside your boot?”. “Bags and books sir,” I replied. After inspecting the boot, he smiled. “You are going for election. Go. Drive carefully,” he said.
There was no roadblock at Ode-Omu. There was none at the Ede junction. The next roadblock we came across was at  Osogbo, some five hundred metres to the State Secretariat. Stern looking soldiers stopped us. We greeted them politely. That elicited a bright smile from one of them. “Who are you?” he asked. “We are journalists”. Then, he asked: “Show me your ID card”. We obliged. After inspecting out boots, he asked us to go. “Write something good about us o. We are here o”, he said.
Four hundred metres from the first road block was another one. We saw few cars on the queue. One by one, they were asking them to move. When it was our turn, the car was checked. Then, the question from one of them: “What have you come to do here?”. I responded that we have come to cover the election as journalists. The soldier smiled and asked us to go.
Driving by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Osogbo/Gbogan road, a detachment of soldiers and policemen was  at the gate. But, there was no roadblock in the front of the office. Residents were carrying out their legitimate business. Commercial motorcyclists and drivers were moving without molestation. On getting to the Goodluck Jonathan for 2015 Support Group office, there was a huge crowd of party supporters. The group was  holding a press conference on the proposed poll. That was few hours after the APC national Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, had finished addressing the media in the state capital. Policemen and soldiers were on guard at the PDP campaihn office.
Suddenly, there was commotion. A PDP youth sighted a Television Continental reporter and descended on the poor guy. “Who sent you here? What do you want here? I know your mission. It won’t work”, he barked as he was raining blows on the reporter. Promptly, soldiers rescued him. But, other PDP boys insisted that the boy should be punished for coming to cover the event. When soldiers could not persuade them to stop harassing the reporter, they took him into their van and drove off.
Night was falling. So, we headed for the hotel already booked for us on Osogbo/Ikirun road.  At the popular junction before the Freedom Park, we were stopped by soldiers. They were friendly. In few seconds, they dispatched us. When we got to the hotel, we encountered a problem. Many soldiers and policemen were lodged there. In hush tones, the securitymen started to protest that they were lodged together with reporters. Later, the manager came out to tell us that the hotel booking for us had been cancelled, advising us to seek accommodation elsewhere. Through the help of The Nation’s correspondent at Osogbo, Soji Adeniyi, we managed to secure rooms in Yetimama Hotel, a stone throw from the popular Orita roundabout, Osogbo. The room allocated to me was an eyesore. It was dirty. But, for that night, there was no alternative.
On Friday, the state was peaceful. More indigenes had trooped into the towns and villages. Many PDP and APC stalwarts from across the federation had also come to give solidarity to Iyiola Omisore and Governor raud Aregbesola.  Last minute mobilisation and strategy meetings were being held across the 30 local governments by politicians. At the APC Situation Room, Okefia, party chieftains were busy holding meetings. Throughout the eve of the election, soldiers and policemen were parading the streets of Osogbo and other towns. But, there was no reported case of molestation. At noon, a rumour spread like a wildfire in the social media. “Have you heard that some people have started thumb printing at Gbongan? Have you heard that  some people have been arrested with ballot boxes in Ede?”, a right activist who had come to observe the election asked on phone. I told him that the only way to know is to go to the police command and seek for clarification. Police spokesperson, Folasade Odoro, told reporters that it was a fabrication. In the afternoon, the Resident Electoral Chairman, Olusegun Agbaje, addressed reporters at the INEC office, saying that the poll will be free and fair. He said he had assurance from security agents that policing would be done with patriotism and sense of responsibility.
The opposite was the case at night. Around 9.30 pm, a lawyer, Kunle Adegoke, called to inform me that there was fire on the mountain. “I don’t understand this democracy anymore. APC leaders are being arrested by soldiers and police. Call their leaders to confirm”, he said. Some of the leaders contacted complained that soldiers had stormed Ede with an intention to abduct Senator Isiaka Adeleke, former governor of Osun State. The former governor did not allow them to enter his premises. As they fired shots, his security aides also fired shots. After about five minutes, they left. Confirming the onslaught, Adeleke said that the soldiers who attempted to invade his premises covered their faces.
At 10 pm, Adegoke called again. He said that there was commotion in Ilesa. “The Commissioner for Agriculture, Wale Adedoyin, has been arrested by police. Tijani Oladosu has been arrested. Policemen are still surrounding the residence of Senator Bayo Salami in Osogbo. A legislator in Ife/Ijesa has escaped into the bush, but they are harassing his wife, children and other people in the house. The Attorney-General and Justice Commissioner, Wale Afolabi, has also been taken away. Call Alhaji Lai Mohammed for details,” he said. I called Mohammed’s number. It was going. But, the APC spokesman did not pick his phone. Another APC chieftain later called to say that Mohammed himself had been arrested. “When chieftains of the ruling party got wind of these arrests, some of them fled from home for safe locations in the night. If they wait, they may not participate in the election tomorrow”, he said. The police denied the arrest that night.
However, the detained chieftains were released around 11.am on poll day.  Shortly after she was accredited by polling officers that Saturday, the deputy governor,  Mrs. Grace Tomori-Laoye, reflected on their ordeal. she said.   “I did not sleep throughout the night. A lot of our members, APC members, were harassed, molested, and picked up by the police. In Oba-Oke, the monarch called me that the town was in turmoil. The youth leader was picked. There were attempts to arrest Senator Adebayo Salami. In Ede, there were attempts to arrest Senator Isiaka Adeleke. Two commissioners were arrested. A party chieftain, Owonikoko, was also picked. I called the police. The police denied. Some people are threatening to disrupt voting. The policemen were tying ankara  on their ankles and they said that they covered their faces”.
The legislator from Ile-Ife, was agonising in the bush where he was hiding. He said on phone: “ Hired policemen had chased APC members into the bush in Ijesa area. I can’t reveal where I am now. I escaped into the bush. Many of our leaders are in the bush; wounded. We don’t know whether they are policemen or fake police”. Also, Adeleke who was interviewed on the Osun State Radio,  protested the assault on his residence.  “I had relocated from my house to my mother’s house to vote. At 1 am on the eve of the poll, a van containing military men, SSS, police with AK 47 came to my house. I was taking my bath. They said I should open my gates. I said no. They started shooting. Five minutes later, they left. They covered their faces”.
After Adeleke, the Agriculture commissioner was also on air. Narrating his ordeal, he said: “Around 9.15 pm, some people were banging my gate in my house at Ilesa.They said I should open the gate. I reported to the SSS. The SSS said that I should not open. After 15 minutes, one of them jumped the fence into my house. They said that, if I don’t open my door, they will blow up my house. They said they wanted to interrogate me at their office in Osogbo.” In Ila, former APC Interim National Chairman Chief Bisi Akande annoyed.  “An old man of over 80 years was seized at Ifedayo local government and dropped at Osogbo. We have called his children to go and pick him up,” he said. Then, the lamentation by Afolabi, the chief law enforcement officer.  “They took my car key from me and pushed me inside the police station. Iam a lawyer and chief law officer of the state. I met the Agriculture commissioner there. They asked me to write a statement. SSS interrogated us. I didn’t have any incriminating material in my car.”
When news about the arrest got to Aregbesola, he cried foul. He told reporters that a flawed process had heralded the poll. “The problem is not with the people, but with the institutions charged with the conduct of the election. Not all security agents maintained neutrality. The crackdown on APC leaders was unwarranted. They were molested, brutalised and incarcerated. Their crime is that they are chieftains of the APC. Osun is under the siege of the gun. What does the Federal Government want? Do they want to force their candidate on the people or they want the people to exercise their right to vote. They want to stage a civilian coup in Osun.”
However, the molestation of key APC leaders did not prevent people from coming out to vote. Indeed,  voters were not molested. In fact, the victimisation of party leaders stopped on the election day. The only person who was assaulted was Adeleke. But, for the second time, he escaped being arrested by the police, although his aides were whisked away.
The election, generally, could be said to be free and fair. In all the polling centres I visited, there was no complaints about the peculiar mistakes of INEC that characterised the 2007 elections.  From 8 am to 4pm, movement was restricted across the state. Voters stormed polling units for accreditation without the fear of intimidation by thugs. Owing to the huge turnout, accreditation could not be completed at noon. Prospective voters who came late were not allowed to join the queue by polling officers and security agents.  Ahead of the poll, sensitive and non-sensitive polling materials had been deployed to the local governments by the INEC. There were no complaints about shortage of voting materials, late coming by polling officers, absence of accreditation materials, lack of voters’ register and harassment and molestation of voters by security agents.  Also, there was no case of ballot snatching by thugs.
However, selected party agents had an axe to grind with the INEC. They complained that they were not allowed to monitor voting by INEC officials and security agents. The affected agents did not have identification tags. To douse the anxiety, Agbaje, directed some officials to issue tags to the agents.  The REC later explained to reporters at Ilesa that the non-issuance of tags to the agents was not deliberate. Agbaje said: “ I have received calls from party leaders on the complaint. Many party agents did not show up with their tags. They did not go to the polling booths with tags. We have directed that the specific electoral officer should return to the INEC Office to release the tags to them.”
Reporters assembled at the INEC office as from 7.30 pm for the results of the poll. For seven and half hours, there was suspense.  That was between 12 midnight on Saturday and 7.30 on Sunday, when the people anxiously waited for the announcement of the final result  by the Chief Returning Officer, Prof. Bamitale Omole, the Vice Chancellor of Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife.
One after the other, the Local Government Collation officers were returning to the office from 30 local governments. Many of them looked tired. Hours before that, there were jubilations in many parts of the state, particularly Osogbo, Ede, Iwo, Ejigbo, and Ilesa. Based on the reports of APC agents, party chieftains were also in celebration mood. But, the celebration of the governor’s victory was suspended, following the delay by the university don. At 1.51 am, Omole, came to the collation office. He was accompanied by the INEC National Commissioner, Ambassador Mohammadu Wali, the National Commissioners for Election Operations, Nuhu Yakubu, Osun State Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) Olusegun Agbaje and his Ondo State counterpart, Akin Orebiyi. He called the collation officers to announce the results before submission to him. As the COs begun to submit the results one after the other, there was no panic and no eyebrow was raised by any of the political parties’ representatives.
However, tension rose when it took Omole a long time to announce the winner. Party leaders from far and near bombarded the electoral agency with phone calls and text messages. Suddenly, the rumour of likely malpractice and distortion of the final result at the final collation spread like a wild fire. Many had kept vigil as they were glued to television sets monitoring the collation. Aregbesola, who had returned to the Government House, Osogbo from Ilesa, where he had gone to cast his vote, was restless. Some chieftains even wanted him to declare himself winner, as the late Chief Moshhod Abiola did, when the electoral agency suspended the release of the June 12, 1993 presidential election results. At the APC Situation Room, a party chieftain shouted: “I suspect a foul play. It appears that they wanted to rig the election, even at this stage.”  Another said: “We must act fast. These people can do and undo.”
When the rumour spread to the final collation centre that midnight, many people were enveloped in anxiety. Reporters, security agents, party agents and others were discussing in hush tones. “Is it true that there is an order from above putting the announcement on hold,” a party chieftain, who was visibly worried, asked. There was no answer. One of the chieftains of a smaller party alleged that a notable  PDP gladiator  from the Southeast had advised the Federal Government to deploy more troops to curtail any violent reaction, if the PDP candidate, Omisore, was declared winner. In hush tones, people started discussing the misleading statement in the social media by a former minister that PDP chieftains and followers were also celebrating victory. This further heightened the tension. But, a rights activist, Comrade Amitolu Shittu, told reporters that the state would be on fire, if the loser is declared winner. “No responsible government at the centre will allow that”, he said.
Many reporters also swarmed the APC agent at the collation centre, Hon. Oladosu Rasak. He looked pale. When I approached him to react to the delay, he noted that the submission of results by 30 LGA COs could take time because of the distance between some local government headquarters and the state capital. But, Rasak agreed that  the delay in final collation was suspicious. Asked to react to the allegation that the PDP candidate may be declared winner, he said: “I have had that too, but how it can be possible is what I don’t know.” Another APC chieftain, Ajibola Famurewa, a member of the House of Representatives, who strolled into the collation centre around 12 midnight,  said: “At this stage, it is too late to rig. We will wait for the pronouncement by the chief returning officer. I tell you, we have our facts. we are winning 23 local governments.” But, Information Commissioner Hon. Sunday Akere, was not worried. Exuding confidence, he said: “We have voted and the people have decided. We know the result already. We are only here for validation and affirmation by the INEC,” he said.
Around 7 am on Sunday, reporters and party agents were running out of patience. Some of them claimed to have graduated from “Great Ife.” “All we are saying, give us the result,” they chorused in protest. Omole was not indifferent to their protest. He urged them to exercise more patience.  “I thank you for your patience. Give me two minutes to round up and announce the result, “ he said.
The OAU Vice Chancellor was not unaware of the suspicion of the INEC by stakeholders. Apparently, he wanted to verify the results before releasing the correct figures. The old teacher shunned the calculator and opted for manual calculation. The manual calculation was done for almost three and half hours. During that suspense, anxiety and tension had had heightened. But, when he declared Aregbesola as the winner, the tension fizzled out in seconds.  Chieftains of the APC and smaller parties embraced.
The drama had not ended. The PDP agent at the collation centre, Hon. Bolu Ajao, stirred controversy when he rejected the results by refusing to sign the result sheet. “We have notified the commission about the lapses in the election. We have issue with the integrity of the process. Our candidate is in the best position to take an appropriate action,” he told reporters.
After the verdict, security men assembled immediately, waiting for the next order. In droves, they left the INEC office, singing and dancing. In five minutes, the roadblocks were dismantled.
According to the result, the governor, who  won convincingly in 22 local governments, scored 394,684 votes, beating his main challenger, Omisore, who polled 292,747 and second runner-up, Fatai Akinbade, who got  8,898. Omisore won in eight councils. There was celebration in town on Sunday. Commercial motorcyclists drove round furiously. Women trooped out with brooms, the symbol of the ruling party. A large crowd converged to celebrate at the Freedom Park, Osogbo.
THE NATION

Governor State of Osun, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola (on the vehicle) acknowledging cheers from the crowd, after a thanksgiving on his Re-election, during Jumat prayer, at Osogbo Central Mosque on Friday 15-08-2014

Photos of the Governor State of Osun, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, his Deputy Mrs Titi Loaye-Tomori  and others, during the Turning of Sod for Mini Bus factory Building at Free Trade Zone, Ede, State of Osun

Governor State of Osun, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola (3rd left); his Deputy, Mrs
Titi Loaye-Tomori (2nd left); Timi of Ede, Oba Munirudeen Lawal (2nd
right); Managing Director, Tilad Auto Nigeria Limited, Alhaji Tijani
Oladosu (left); Commissioner for Commerce, Industry, Cooperatives and
Empowerment, Mr Ismaila Alagbada (3rd right); Special Adviser to the
Governor on Commerce, Industry, Cooperatives and Empowerment, Dr Olalekan
Yinusa (right) and others, during the Turning of Sod for Mini Bus factory
Building at Free Trade Zone, Ede, State of Osun

Governor State of Osun, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola (2nd right); his Deputy, Mrs
Titi Loaye-Tomori (2nd left); Timi of Ede, Oba Munirudeen Lawal (left);
Managing Director, Tilad Auto Nigeria Limited, Alhaji Tijani Oladosu (3rd
right); Special Adviser to the Governor on Commerce, Industry, Cooperatives
and Empowerment, Dr Olalekan Yinusa (right) and others, during the Turning
of Sod for Mini Bus factory Building at Free Trade Zone, Ede, State of Osun

Governor State of Osun, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola (3rd left); his Deputy, Mrs
Titi Loaye-Tomori (2nd left); Timi of Ede, Oba Munirudeen Lawal (2nd
right); Managing Director, Tilad Auto Nigeria Limited, Alhaji Tijani
Oladosu (left); Special Adviser to the Governor on Commerce, Industry,
Cooperatives and Empowerment, Dr Olalekan Yinusa (right) and others, during the Turning of Sod for Mini Bus factory Building at Free Trade Zone, Ede, State of Osun

Fellow Nigerians, what happened exactly one week ago in the State of Osun was not as simple as it looked. Lest we take some things for granted as we love to do in our country, kindly permit me to do an elaborate post-mortem of that much anticipated gubernatorial election. It is no longer news that the incumbent, Governor Rauf Aregbesola won. I never believed for any second that he was going to be defeated by his main challenger, Iyiola Omisore, for reasons I will explain shortly.

The battle for Osun was fought on different fronts and at different levels. There was the personal angle to the war. Who was Aregbesola and who was Omisore? That is usually the first layer of the struggle for supremacy. That aspect is always enhanced by media hype and propaganda. This was palpable in the war of modern day Ekiti-Parapo which was won by Ayo Fayose. Fayose had succeeded in projecting himself as being more popular, streetwise and down-to-earth than the current Governor, Kayode Fayemi. I had warned those who cared to listen to watch how the Governor had failed to challenge Fayose’s popularity contest. That, for me, was a fatal mistake. Human beings tend to follow what Francis Bacon called Idols of the Market Place.

The second mistake from Ekiti was simple and straight-forward. Theoretically, political parties would always attempt to rig elections in Nigeria because of the psychological fixation that the other party will rig. It then becomes the contest of the bigger-rigger. But a party can’t successfully rig where it is not overwhelmingly popular. This happened in 1983 when the NPN successfully took over power in Oyo State and sacked the supposedly popular government of the Cicero of Esa-Oke, Bola Ige, but could not get away with Akin Omoboriowo’s electoral victory over Adekunle Ajasin. This is an eloquent example of how elections are rigged and sustained through subtle connivance of unwary electorates. Omololu Olunloyo, an Ibadan man and Mathematical icon, had succeeded in projecting himself as matching Bola Ige intellect for intellect, popularity for popularity, thus erecting the optical illusion that Bola Ige was indeed defeatable.

But Omoboriowo did not invest in such monumental hypnotisation and mesmerisation of the people as a prelude towards preparing the people of Ondo State for the forceful takeover that the NPN had envisaged for most of the difficult and unfriendly states needed for the grandiloquent coronation and canonisation of President Shehu Shagari. Fayose had learnt this lesson in grandstanding and was able to reduce Fayemi into a pitiable pulp. Had Fayemi challenged Fayose’s farcical apotheosis, perhaps the results would have been different. But once the hunter transfigured into the hunted, it became obvious that Fayose was going to win fairly or crookedly because a fait accompli had been adequately prepared for the outcome of the election to be believable. If you doubt my theory, please, crosscheck the areas that returned incredible voter turnout and stupendous voting in the Osun election. They were mainly from Ife Local Governments. PDP would have loved to replicate and return such humongous votes all over the State but couldn’t because they had foolishly lost most of their warlords and protectors like Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Isiaka Adeleke. Fayemi did not have such formidable supporters in Ekiti.

This Ekiti scenario was cleverly avoided and nipped in the bud by Aregbesola’s strategists. They refused to be cowed or intimidated by the blistering PDP machinery and militarisation or, more appropriately, blitzkrieg. Those claiming that the unprecedented security presence in Osun was to make the election free and fair missed the point, or just chose to be clever by half. The whole idea was to establish a regime of scaremongering and if possible discourage many voters from even coming out to fulfil their civic responsibility. It is very easy for electoral manipulators to utilise the cards of disgruntled voters who refuse to vote to perpetrate their nefarious activities. This coupled with the fact that the bloated voter register is a mirage, in any event, makes rigging a delight for electoral cheats.  Anyone who watched the PDP Grand Rally in Osogbo and listened to the speeches of their leaders would have come to the same conclusion with me that they desperately wanted Osun in their kitty, not because they loved Omisore but for future purposes. PDP was merely laying the grass for the electoral Olympics which would be staged in 2015 and must be won by their team. There was no indication whatsoever that PDP was going to be benevolent towards APC. Let me expand this further and better.

The 2015 Presidential election promises to be a battle-royale. And the main stage for this rumble in the jungle is likely to be the South West region of Nigeria.  This makes it absolutely necessary for PDP to capture these States ahead and prepare the grounds for a major offensive. Their job would not be too difficult if they can secure Ondo, Ekiti, Osun, and others as at when due. Ondo and Ekiti have become friendly States and Osun would have made things even better by being the icing on the cake. PDP victory in Osun would have opened up APC for demystification and ostensibly subjected it to obvious ridicule. Had APC lost Osun, believe me, the game would have been over by now. The complete annihilation of Yorubaland would have been promptly achieved in one fell swoop. But God saved APC by the whiskers and gave them a second life.

The smartest thing APC did was to take on the PDP so fearlessly. They were able to reassure the people of Osun that they were ready to fight with everything if PDP ever attempted to rig them out and the people trusted them. If they had shown any sign of weakness and inner fears, PDP would have smashed them into smithereens and run away with cheap victory like they did in Ekiti where the stunned Governor who was hit by thunderbolt had to hurriedly concede defeat. The people of Osun went out boldly on Election Day to vote and seriously guard their mandate. They were not ready to tolerate any hanky-panky.  The message was very clear in the way they turned the election into a celebration of the achievements of their Governor. Social media played a key role as well. The people were able to establish contact with every part and monitor the peaceful way Osun people went about the business of the day. Even the security guys tacitly supported the people contrary to whatever they were brought in to achieve in the first instance.

It must be noted with every emphasis that Aregbesola’s candidacy was very formidable and not a fluke. One mistake that PDP continues to make is its preference for brawn over brains. But it must be reminded that no leader has ever succeeded in enslaving Nigerians and no one has been able to subdue the people of South West through the use of coercion. The people are too sophisticated to be dragged on a leash by any leader no matter how popular and wealthy. This is the reason their leadership changes constantly and rapidly because of their impatience with aspiring slave-drivers.

APC itself has so much to learn from Yoruba history. This victory is an indication that the party still has a fair chance of winning at the Federal level if they can resist the rascality being credited to some of their leaders. I doubt if anyone tells them the home truth about the reason many of their admirers are afraid to join the party. This must be reiterated at this stage if for nothing but for posterity. If APC fails it would be as a result of the vaunting ambitions of its own leaders who keep coming up with all manner of selfish permutations in order to gain the upper hand in the power equation. It is such a tragedy that so much time is being wasted in coming together to present a common front that can convincingly confront the candidacy of Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 elections.

I will enumerate some of the major hurdles ahead of APC. The first is that many keen watchers of its affairs and conduct still see it as a private and family business of Bola Tinubu. There is no question that this man has been the biggest single investor in what has become APC today but he must be extremely careful not to waste the uncommon goodwill he has garnered as dividend for his gallant effort. How he tries to wash himself clean of allegations of handpicking candidates at local and national levels would help in shaping people’s impression, perception and decision about him and the party. This was part of what caused the misfortune of the party in Ondo and Ekiti. It takes a lot of sacrifice for a great man not to exhibit his prowess but it can only be counter-productive if care is not taken at the end of the day. It would be to his eternal credit if the party is allowed to grow into an octopus rather than a one-fingered party. The party should be worried about possible and sudden disintegration after all that has been done and achieved so far.

The second hurdle is how to contain the combustive ambition of some of its members. I believe, it needs to form a shadow kitchen cabinet of its key members urgently before most of them are poached away by PDP. The party has practically lost key allies in Borno, Edo, Ogun, Adamawa, Kano, Sokoto and other places. This emigration must be stopped before it turns into a mass exodus. It should never take 20 years to prepare for madness, a lot of time has been wasted already. For every day it dilly dallies, the PDP resurgence gets stronger.  The APC should look for the most credible Nigerians from all over the world and walks of life to bring together as a powerful team to strategise for the forthcoming elections and then form the cabinet after winning those elections.

The third is how to connect speedily to the largest army of angry youths in Africa who have lost all hope in their country. APC would gain so much if they can offer genuine optimism and rekindle the fire of patriotism in them. What I see at the moment is the over reliance on hard-core politicians who may not be able to match PDP in the game of numbers. There is no way APC would defeat PDP without galvanising the overwhelming support of non-traditional and first time voters.

The fourth and probably most vital is how to balance our ethnic colouration and volatile religious sensibilities. APC is going to have an uphill task picking the number one and number two candidates for the Presidential election. This needs not be so if the Party simply realises that what Nigerians want is that somebody for once puts merit into the forefront of the choice of leaders without sacrificing equity and justice.  Unfortunately, I’ve already uncovered so much confusion from them about who to pick, where to pick, the religion, the gender, and so on. If the truth must be told, only PDP can gain from this unnecessary commotion.

The more I listen to the argument of some of these APC members, the more I pray for these guys not to voluntarily throw their best chances into the Atlantic Ocean. What saddens me is that some of their permutations are based on selfish personal interests and do not take the larger interests of the Party or indeed Nigeria and Nigerians into consideration. Sometimes, I wonder if PDP has bewitched Nigerians and especially the opposition leaders. By now, there should be no argument whatsoever about sacking the party permanently for gross infractions and selecting the best candidates to achieve this objective.  The disorderliness and seeming lack of focus of the opposition may ultimately keep the PDP in power in a manner even more serious than we can ever contemplate.

It is a sad reality we must grudgingly accept when tomorrow comes.

THISDAY

“My administration will carry through phenomenal reforms in the next four years. As a template of urban transformation across our cities and towns, Osogbo at the end of my tenure will look very much like Dubai”–Rauf Aregbesola, August 12, 2014.

Last Sunday, the Chief Returning Officer for the Osun State governorship election and Vice Chancellor, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Prof. Bamitale Omole, announced to a crowd that had waited all night, that Mr. Rauf Aregbesola, incumbent governor of the state, had won the election by a comfortable margin. As a nation, elections, national or regional, test us to our very limits, and this recent one, by raising the spectre of electoral banditry, was certainly no exception. And, so, despite the scientific prediction by three independently conducted opinion polls that Aregbesola would beat his closest opponent, Iyiola Omisore, by an appreciable leeway, tension, apprehension and fears of last minute vote swapping or high-tech rigging pervaded the atmosphere. Indeed, The PUNCH columnist, Prof. Niyi Akinnaso, stated in his article entitled, “Why and how Aregbesola won the Osun election” (Tuesday, August 12, 2014) that “in a final bid to snatch victory, they attempted to disrupt the collation of results at the INEC office”.

How much a debt of gratitude the nation owes to INEC, and Omole for standing their grounds was brought home to this writer on Tuesday when as part of an ongoing research project, I had to be at Ile-Ife and Osogbo. For close to two hours, Osogbo came to a standstill as a massive, jubilant throng serenaded Aregbesola on his way to Freedom Square to address a huge audience. No hyperbole intended; the scene could have been swapped for one of Obafemi Awolowo’s campaign rallies. In those moments, it dawned on me, what an epic political storm could have overtaken the nation, had the overseers of the process succumbed to the temptation referred to by Akinnaso, to conjure up a fake result.

This is all the more so, when you consider the comprehensive militarisation of the state featuring by one account, close to 75,000 security operatives, some of them wearing masks. Let the point be made: There is a difference between the deployment of soldiers for elections which occur regularly in large democracies such as India and Indonesia, and an ostentatious display of armed might including the assassination attempts on political opponents. Those democracies employ the military to transport voting material to remote and inaccessible regions and to maintain order in volatile territories. What is decidedly contemptuous of the citizenry, however, is the scenario where some politicians, deliberately targeted, were forced into hibernation, and in some cases, disenfranchisement.

Power exercised irresponsibly or unjustly gives out the character or intentions of those exercising it. In this instance, several narratives point to an intention to scare the opposition, the All Progressives Congress out of its wits and to provide a soft landing for possible vote swindling. These are tragic omens in the light of the 2015, an election qualified by the factor that as some observers have remarked, large scale militarisation on the scale of Osun or Ekiti is logistically impossible across 36 states. If Nigeria were a decent country, the federal authorities would have apologised for the naked show of force in Osogbo especially for the arrest of the APC party officials for no apparently justifiable reason.

In contrast to the second term syndrome of Nigerian politics whereby high flyers slow down or simply wallow in their initial achievements, Aregbesola, quoted in the opening statement, promises greater governance impact. He set the bar high on Tuesday when he said that Osogbo and other cities/towns will be transformed on the world class level of Dubai. Cynics may dismiss the promise as post-election rhetoric rushing forth in the flush of victory. It is important however to note that an urban renewal plan authored in conjunction with the United Nations – Habitat currently exists in the state. For example, there are plans to build a cargo airport, increase the quality of mega schools and regenerate urban infrastructure to better connect Osogbo with other cities in the state and to Lagos. This is no doubt an ambitious project; it is even more so considering the financial strait jacket under which the state labours.

Aregbesola already has several exciting menu on his governance plate some of which have been well acclaimed. The challenge he faces therefore is that of sustaining such innovative programmes as a vast school feeding system imaginatively skewed to incorporate an employment generating scheme; while delivering on an impressive urban transformation agenda. Facing this challenge head-on will of course involve increasing the state Internally Generated Revenue which he lifted in the preceding three and half years from N300m to N1.6bn.

Even at that, several of his bold social programmes which earned him reelection are bound to run against the tight leash of dwindling and irregular federal allocation. Conceivably, if the Western Regional Integration could be fast-tracked in the face of political vicissitudes, economies of scale would permit the quicker transformation of the regional hub into an industrial and agricultural model that will challenge the rest of the federation. In the absence of such a lucky turn, Osun will have to apply all the tricks in the books of financial engineering to pull through laudable social policies.

Considering the brake on development which an incompetent centre constitutes, it is time for developmental states within the federation to explore innovative power generating options such as solar and wind power, light rail and the quickening of small scale manufacturing. Of course, life may be easier for Osun if the APC gains control of federal power in 2015. However, scenario building should take cognisance of best case and worst case scenarios. There is also the factor that electoral victory having been secured in part by elite transactions featuring the defections of notable figures from the Peoples Democratic Party, the party at the state level has become so inclusive and disparate that singing from the same hymn sheet ideologically becomes a challenge. Aregbesola’s political skills will be tested in the balancing acts he performs between fidelity to social programmes and the imperatives of power and spoils sharing.

Not everyone in his party will be interested in visionary programmes; more likely than not several will be angling for a piece of the action, hence the beckoning of statesmanship. In the same vein, acumen will be required in navigating the treacherous waters of religious polarity, an issue that nearly derailed some of his laudable programmes.

What is exciting about the prospects of Osun under Aregbesola is the framework gaining ground globally that innovative cities and sub regions may by transcending the constraints of weakly performing centres in fragile states to become growth poles and areas of fast paced development. By no means an easy task, it remains to be seen how far and to what extent the enunciated goals of a social reformer in political garb will be attained. He brings to his second term the popularity of a gladiator who has survived near martyrdom and enjoys the authority of a leader who ascended by surrendering himself to crucifixion.

He must now translate these assets into enduring achievement.

Punch

In most of the local government areas that Omisore won, the turnout of voters was severely low. Most of his supporters just refused to wake up on Election Day.

By now, you must be tired of reading all the spurious analysis about how Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola won last week’s Governorship election in Osun State.

The phrase ‘Stomach Infrastructure’ has been used, abused, reused and even misused.

All in an attempt to make readers feel like they are political gods, many analysts and exuberant social media commentators complicate the truth of how Aregbesola won.

There is also only one reason why these ‘wana-be political analysts’ get away with their garbage analysis; The Nigerian Constitution.  Oh yes, just take a look at section 39.

“…everyone is entitled to freedom of expression, including freedom to hold opinions and receive and impart ideas and information without interference.”

The problem is that the constitution is silent about what happens (punishment) if you impart ‘false ideas and information.’

Certainly, ‘freedom of information’ is important, but what is more important is ‘freedom of accurate information.’

We deserve nothing short of accurate information about how Rauf Aregbesola won.

We should not be swayed by the entire political name calling e.g. “Omisore, a Conman who converted to a CornMan”, or “Aregbesola, the Political Ebola of Osun State.”

Shouldn’t we be teaching the next generation of leaders about ‘How to learn from victory?’

What is more important ‘Why Aregbesola Won’? Or ‘How Aregbesola Won’?

Though both questions are relevant and similar, they are not equally as important.

The question about ‘Why Aregbesola Won’ turns on the debate microphone. Arguments are very personal and hard to prove. Often, you will hear such arguments in crowded beer parlours.

Everybody has an opinion about Why Aregbesola won, and of course, they are very passionate when it comes to defending these views.

The other question, ‘How Aregbesola Won’, is often based on facts and figures. It is verifiable and will be used by first in-class political analysts and advisers to develop election winning tactics and strategies for Osun 2018.

To answer this question requires more vigorous data analysis. To avoid doing such rigorous exercise, many public commentators focus on ‘the Why instead of the How.’

But the ‘How’ is what the next generation of leaders need. The ‘How’ is what we can really learn from. The ‘How’ is what reveals the truth that we desire. Focusing on the ‘How’ is the only way we can learn from failures and then make better plans for victory.

THE HIDDEN SECRETS OF HOW AREGBESOLA WON

1. High Voter Concentration

10 out of the 30 local governments accounted for 51% of Rauf Aregbesola’s votes.

In simple terms, for every ten individuals that voted in these ten local government areas (Osogbo, Olorunda, Ilesha East, Ilesha West, Irewole, Irepodun, Iwo, Ejigbo,Ifelodun and Ede North), Senator Iyiola Omisore got only 3 votes.

The results of these 10 local governments gives exclusive insight about what went wrong for Senator Iyiola Omisore and the PDP team.

1. Low Voter Turnout

In most of the local government areas that Omisore won, the turnout of voters was severely low. Most of his supporters just refused to wake up on Election Day.

Compare this with the turnout of voters for the APC / Rauf Aregbesola

1. Poor Voter Education

Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola not only won with more votes, he also had lower invalid votes per local government area in which he won. (Only in 33% of the local government area where APC won did they record invalid votes in excess of 1,000 persons per local government.)

75% of the 8 local government areas that PDP won had invalid votes in excess of 1,000 persons per local government.

Within the next four years, there are too many uncertain events to predict that a demographic change in the voting pattern of Osun State is certain.

In the short to medium term, any party that wants to increase the possibility of victory in the coming elections in 2015 has to rethink its winning tactics and strategies.

YNAIJA